VoxNations is proud of providing the most accurate predictions of the outcome of Iran’s June 2021 and May 2017 presidential elections.

Our prediction for Iran’s June 2021 presidential election, which was published by Newsweek one day before that election, was within the specified margin of error for 3 out of 4 candidates and 1.56% outside of the margin of sampling error for the fourth candidate. Likewise, our prediction for Iran’s May 2017 presidential election, which was published by The Economist three days before that election, was within 2 percentage points from the official results.

VoxNations’ Prediction of Iran's 2021 Presidential Election

Iran’s thirteenth presidential election was held on 2021-06-18. Newsweek covered our predictions in a feature exclusive article published on 2021-06-17, one day before the election.

Our predictions were based on the responses given by the ‘likely voters’ to this question: “Who will you be voting for in the upcoming presidential election?” The predictions were from a telephone survey conducted by IranPoll, which is the subdivision of VoxNations that focuses on Iran, among a nationally representative probability sample of 1000 Iranians over the age of 18 on Wednesday, June 16, 2021. The margin of sampling error was +/- 3.09%. Sampling and methodology details are available here.

IranPoll predicted the voting results for 3 out of 4 candidates accurately within the specified margin of sampling error and our prediction was only 1.56% outside of the margin of sampling error for the fourth candidate.

VoxNations’ Prediction of Iran's 2017 Presidential Election

Like most polling agencies, majority of polls conducted by VoxNations are owned by their respective clients. However, we did publicize two rounds of polling results before the Iranian 2017 presidential election, which was held on May 19th 2017.

The following graph was published by The Economist on May 19th 2017 using IranPoll’s data from May 16th 2017:

The actual results of the presidential election as reported by the Iranian Ministry of Interior was 57.14% for Hassan Rouhani and 38.28% for Ebrahim Raisi.